Sunday, April 4, 2010
Cal State Fullerton Series
The Aggies knew that coming into Fullerton they were going to have to fight for everything. The Fullerton Titans had struggled before conference play but there is a reason that they were ranked 4th overall in the nation in Baseball America's pre-season College rankings, the Titans are a perennial powerhouse in the world of college baseball. They have produced a long line of major league talent including among others: Aaron Rowand, Kurt Suzuki, Phil Nevin, and Mark Kotsay. The Titans currently have some more potential major league talent in the pipeline with Christian Colon and Gary Brown. The Aggies knew that the Titans could be even better offensively than the opponents from last week, the Fresno State Bulldogs, and Friday night the Titans started the series off with a bang.

Thursday-
Double digit runs is not very common in baseball, even less common is putting up 20 in one game which is exactly what the Titans did Friday night. Dayne Quist looked a lot like he did last week against Fresno State, very hittable. His ending stat line is pretty ugly, one of the most telling stats was that he had his shortest appearance of the season at 5 innings while still throwing a lot of pitches, 109 to be exact. Quist, as the Friday starter, if often called upon to go deep into games to set the tone for the weekend and anytime he exits the game early it is a fairly clear marker to see how he's done. Quist also gave up 10 earned runs and 11 total. The worst ratio in my opinion for the Thursday start was that he walked 6 while only striking out 1, when you're that hittable and unable to get any outs yourself it's going to be a really bad day. That was the one thing Quist had in Fresno, so this outing was that much worse. I am still confident that the young southpaw will bounce back but back-to-back weak showings is never a good thing. Unfortunately for Quist his bullpen wasn't able to help him out at all.

Tim Busbin very likely had his worst outing of his pitching career during his only appearance for the weekend in Fullerton. Busbin went 1/3 of an inning on 37 pitches while giving up 9 runs, all of which were earned. Busbin gave up 3 hits and walked 6 and struck out 0. At that point the game was beyond reach, Scott Chew made his second appearance on the year and went 2 and 2/3 innings while pitching pretty well but "junk time" has possibly never been more fitting then his time in the game Thursday night.

Daniel Cepin and Paul Politi had the best nights for the Aggies at the plate but hardly any hitters played a full 9 innings and compared to the Titans hitters no one in the Aggies lineup did anything notable. The Titans were lead by exactly who we thought they would be, Christian Colon and Gary Brown. Colon and Brown were a combined 8 for 11 with 6 runs scored and 6 RBI, so a very impressive night for the top two hitters for Fullerton.

Friday-
The Aggies had 24 hours to regroup but when they took to Goodwin Field Friday night it was a very similar outcome. The Ags did have more bats come alive Friday, with Scott Heylman, Scott Lyman and Justin Schafer leading the way with a combined 7 for 11 from the plate with 4 runs, and 2 RBI but it still wasn't nearly enough to keep up with the Titans.

The Titans put the game away quickly, scoring 6 runs in each of the first two innings. They were once again lead by Colon and Brown, going 3 for 5 and 3 for 4 respectively. Brown also scored 4 runs Friday night while also knocking in another.

The Aggies once again had a weak performance from their starter, Anthony Kupbens this time. Kupbens stat line comes across as pretty ugly, 4 and 2/3 innings and he threw 115 pitches which gives a indication of the trouble to come. The lefty gave up 15 hits, walked 4 and allowed 16 Titans to cross the plate, all of which were earned. Sean Watson had one of his worst outings on the year in relief of Kupbens, going 2 and 1/3 innings while allowing 10 hits and 7 runs to score. It took the Aggies 186 pitches to get through 7 innings of baseball.

Saturday-
The fact that the Aggies came out to the field on Saturday and actually put up a fight is impressive, but unlike in Fresno last week they were unable to come away with the W. The game on Saturday was a pitchers duel, with Kyle Mertins and Scott Lyman facing off.

Lyman had another strong performance, which makes it back to back good outings from the struggling Sunday starter. His stat line doesn't look great but Lyman did a good job battling and keeping his team close throughout the game. The young righty went 7 innings, gave up 9 hits and walked 4 while only striking out 2 but he kept his team withing striking distance, which is a feat after how much offense the Titans put together the prior two games. It looks as though Lyman has turned a corner with the new tactic from Rex Peters, on days that he pitches Lyman no longer is in the lineup. The question will be if the Aggies offense continues to struggle on days that Lyman starts, will Peters be able to hold one of his best hitters out of the lineup.

David Popkins was the only Aggie hitter to have a strong day, going 2 for 4 with 2 RBI. The Titans top two hitters were pretty quiet also, Colon went 1 for 5 and Brown went 0 for 2 with a walk. After the output the Titans had on Thursday and Friday it is understandable that they didn't have much left in the tank, but they still had enough to get the W. The Titans broke the 2-2 tie in the 8th inning when Billy Marcoe went yard over the center field fence off of Scott Lyman. The Aggies had a chance to sneak away from Goodwin field with a win but instead they start conference play off with the 3 game sweep.

Upcoming week-
The Aggies game against the Wolfpack of Nevada, which was scheduled for Monday, has been postponed so the next time they take the field will be back in Davis at Dobbins Stadium this Friday the 9th where they will host Long Beach State for a weekend series. The Aggies have a little more pressure now that they will be starting their second week of conference play still looking for win number 1. I would imagine that we will see a strong bounce back from Quist and Kupbens as well as hopefully the offense as a whole. Kupbens has been one of the more quiet starters early on this year with Quist dominating his first 4 starts and Lyman has the flashy tools but Kupbens still is a capable starter and I will be looking at him in depth later this week. The Aggies next 5 games are at home in Davis and that chance to regroup is exactly what they need after weak showings in Fresno and Fullerton.

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Thursday, April 1, 2010
Dayne Quist
When I think of Dayne Quist a couple of words come to mind, junk-baller and overworked. I'll get to why overworked was one of the words in a minute but first I wanted to go over that word "junk-baller" and also just how dominant this 5 foot 9 southpaw was through his first 4 starts. While I started with Scott Lyman in regards to in-depth looks at the players, Quist has easily been the Aggies best starter so far this season. He has also spent the entire season as the Friday starter so Rex Peters has clearly trusted Quist from the outset.

Dayne Quist is not an overpowering pitcher, he only throws in the 85-87 mph range generally with his fastball and that might be a little too high of an estimation. Quist relies heavily on his command and his off-speed pitches. The young lefty also has an advantage over other college pitchers in that he has command of 4 pitches. While that is normal for pitchers at the next level, pitchers at the college level generally will only throw 3 pitches. Quist has the fairly standard Fastball, Change-up, and Curveball combination, the pitch that he adds is a split fastball. That extra pitch along with his excellent command has lead to a very good start for the Aggies young Friday Starter.

Before his start in Fresno, Quist had only given up 7 runs in 34 and 1/3 innings, which worked out to an ERA of 1.83. In 4 starts Quist had finished the game 3 times. Quist had only walked 9 hitters and given up 19 hits. For those of you keeping score at home that had his WHIP clocking in at just around .81, which for those of you unfamiliar with WHIP, is an amazing ratio. There is an underlying bad stat to go along with all the dominance of Quist's first 4 starts and that is his pitch count.

Since he had pitched 3 complete games it shouldn't come as a huge surprise that he has topped 100 pitches in 3 of his 4 first starts. This is why the word overworked comes to mind. Quist averaged 109.5 pitches through his first 4 starts, topping out at 126 pitches on March 5th when he faced off against Causeway rivals, the Sac State Hornets. This is a disturbing trend so early into the season and could have had been strong reason behind Quist's rough night in Fresno last weekend against the Bulldogs. There is a very interesting interview in today's California Aggie by Associate Sports Editor Mark Ling with Quist. Anyone who is interested in obtaining a little more insight into the southpaw should go check that out at The Aggie online by clicking here. In that interview Quist was asked if he was worried about his pitch count this this early in the season, he responded that he was not. There are a couple things that make me think he may have a point, not being a flame thrower is the biggest. Generally the pitchers who throw harder also put a lot more stress on their arm. Quist does not throw hard so there is a lot less stress and injury concern. Another reason is that Quist has a simple easy delivery that doesn't seem to put a lot of stress on his shoulder and/or arm even when he does put a little more behind a fastball. So there is a chance that the heavy workload won't be a problem for Quist moving forward into the season but I for one am still skeptical, at least for now.

So Quist took his amazing start to the season into Pete Beiden field but strictly looking at the stat line Dayne Quist's night against Fresno State comes across as very bad, and really it was bad. There is some good news that comes with the clearly bad news. We'll start with the bad and then finish off on some good notes. The worst thing from Friday night was simply how hittable Quist looked, he reached 0 and 2 counts often but then didn't seem to have the ability to finish them off. Something that makes Quist's night seem a little better but bad for the team as a whole is is that if you factor in the poor defense the Aggies had behind their Friday starter his numbers look a lot better. The key defensive miscue came in the big inning for the Bulldogs, with the bases loaded Scott Lyman let a grounder get by him and make it all the way to the wall. That play probably would have still scored 1 run but with Lyman's error all the runners made their way to the plate and the hitter ended up on third base. If you just take that one error away Quist's statline looks a lot better. While that is good for Quist there still were multiple defensive misplays and that is uncharacteristic of an Aggie defense that is normally very solid. The last stat in favor of Quist on that Friday start was he still struck out 7 Bulldogs while only walking 1.

Even after struggling in Fresno Quist still has very impressive stats on the season overall. The young lefty currently holds a 2.90 ERA and a WHIP of rougly .99 in 40 and 1/3 innings of work. His record is 4-1 and has a 31-10 K/BB ratio. Possibly the most impressive stat is that even after being hit around last Friday his batting average against is still only .213.
Factor all of the information together and I'd say the Aggies still have a very good Friday starter going forward. He might not be as dominant as he had been early on in the season but he'll be much closer to that than how he looked in Fresno.

Quist will get a shot at bouncing back tonight when he takes the mound in Fullerton against an extremely impressive Cal State Fullerton team. The Titans record stands at only 12-11 but they were ranked 4th in the pre-season Baseball America rankings. Fullerton is led offensively by Christian Colon and Gary Brown, both of whom have a chance at being selected in the first round of this summer's MLB draft. I will be watching along on Game Tracker tonight and listening in when I get a chance. Even though it might come off as negative,I'm just cautious. So mark me down as optimistic about a solid performance out of Quist tonight and for the rest of the year.

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